What a difference a day makes. Yeah, I went out on a limb and said I wanted Ohio State to take down the tyrant last night, and it kind of, sort of didn't happen. OK, Ohio State was soundly beaten and Florida became the first repeat champion since Duke in 92. But things could be worse.

As painful as it is to backtrack from that pronouncement, it must have hurt Bill Simmons just a bit more to eat his words from Monday's Basketball Blog. The Sports Guy actually said that he could live with Joakim Noah on the Celtics, should they miss the Oden-Durant sweepstakes and wind up with the number 3 pick in this year's draft. After all, I don't claim to be a basketball junkie, a devotee of good basketball and I don't get paid for this.

I may not watch 300 basketball games a year, but I could see what Simmons apparently missed. Noah is going to an NBA team, who will waste high pick and a considerable sum to learn a painful lesson. I almost feel guilty for writing what I am about to write in the wake of that tender scene where he ran into the crowd and climbed row after row to see his mother (which is just a bit creepy). But Noah's game has to progress quite a bit to be considered fatally flawed.

First off, he can't create his own shot, which is only so much of a problem since he's not a very good shooter. Have you seen him dribble the ball? He moves like a newborn caribou on ice. I don't think he's quick enough on the defensive end to make it at the next level. He's just not athletic enough to make it, and he's not big enough to offset his limitations.

He was a very good college big man, but the thing about that is the road to organizational hell at the next level is paved with the remains of guys who were tall but not tall enough, quick but not quick enough, big but not big enough, tough but not tough enough. That's Joakim Noah.

I guess if I had to compare him to any current or former NBA players (and it's hard, what with the fact that he's biracial and ethnic sensitivity is the order of the day), I'd go with Udonis Haslem or maybe Danny Ferry. There is an outside chance that he might turn out to be a serviceable power forward, if he goes to a team that has a solid center. But that doesn't seem very likely.

His performance in yesterday's game was more indicative of his NBA potential than any of his other tournament games. Oden was the only NBA ready big man he's faced, and it wasn't even close. Noah's not ready for prime time.

I really don't want to hear about how well he played against other teams in the tournament. None of the guys Noah faced in the first few rounds has much of a chance at the next level. So what if he ruled the court like a man against boys in the Butler game? That's what he was. No one on Butler was over 6-7, and when the starters got into foul trouble, Noah had 6 inches on his man. It's not particularly impressive to dominate under those circumstances.

For a little while, part of me wanted to see the Celtics draft Noah. Getting him will hasten the end of the Ainge era, or at least it ought to, since the team would not improve significantly. Of course that presumes that Banner 17 wants to field a winning team and isn't in the basketball business for a tax dodge, which might not be the case. Plus Ainge must have compromising photos in his possession. How else can you explain his bulletproof status?

But then I got to thinking, and I realized that there is only a small chance I can become a Celtics fan again, even if Ainge goes. I don't care for Banner 17 as an ownership group. My brother had season tickets through his business up until the Walker trade. When they hadn't renewed after the trade, Wyc placed a call to the company. Wyc gave the party line about how the team could improve and how the ceiling with Toine had been reached.

Now, the Celtics may have reached their ceiling in 01-02. But the team has not shown any signs of mounting a playoff run without Antoine. There is a considerable body of evidence to show that they're a lot worse without him than they were with him. Not only is this team a poorly constructed loser, it's also in salary cap jail. Yes, they're not as far over the cap as the Knicks. But there was a time when more was expected of the Celtics franchise.

I might find a way to overlook Banner 17 if this team were remotely likable. Paul Pierce is a whining, overrated bust. His defining moment as a Celtic will most likely end up being that playoff meltdown at the end of game six against Indiana in 2004-2005. That cost the Celtics the series (they were up 3-2, and the team, with the exception of Walker, failed to show in game 7). He wonders why he doesn't have more endorsements? Maybe if he had more charisma or delivered when it really mattered with any consistency (let's not forget that he fell to the Celtics after a memorable 0-11 from the field in his final NCAA game), he'd get more money.

I just don't see much future for the young players. I think Al Jefferson and Delonte West are as good now as they'll ever be. Don't forget, a high profile pick will take time and shots away from the "pieces" already in place. Ryan Gomes is a tweener. Rondo can't shoot. Telfair is a bust who will never live down that terrible trade which sent a much better player to Portland. So what if Gerald Green won the Dunk Contest? At the end of his career, he may have a resume full of dunk contest victories but very little in terms of more tangible accomplishments.

Throw Noah into that mix, and in the short run it should cost Ainge and Rivers their jobs. Unfortunately, the Celtics will be stuck with him for a few more years after that. But if the team ends up with pick three and they take Noah, and the plan is to keep Ainge and Rivers long term, there's only one way to go. Noah should have his choice on a night in and night out basis of any of the retired jerseys for his number.

I think the Celtics are getting close to forfeiting the right to celebrate their legacy. Instead of fielding this travesty of a team, they might as well let Noah wear number 6 for a game or two, then 33 or 15 or 18. Hell, I don't think Cowens is very busy these days, he could be forced to convey Noah around the city (or at least around the TD Banknorth Facility) in a rickshaw. Maybe Havlicheck could wash his car every day.

For what they've done to this organization since they purchased the team, Banner 17 would have been only slightly more disrespectful to everything Red stood for had they gone the Jeremy Bentham route and preserved his remains for permanent display in the vestibule of the stadium.

For a while, I was looking forward to the new season of Mind of Mencia. I saw his stand-up show, Take a Joke, America about 5 years ago. I've been watching his Comedy Central show since it came on the air. But then I saw the commercials for the season premiere. And it reminded me that there's a lot to be said for the cliche that timing is everything.

I think at this point, every joke that can be (and probably should be) made about that astronaut that went on the cross-country spree of insanity. It's too bad for Carlos that his show was on hiatus and he didn't get a chance to beat that to death with the rest of the media when it happened. But it would have been far better to let it go than to cram it into a season opening episode three months after the fact like a little "dee-de-dee" (sorry to steal his catch phrase) trying to force the round peg into the square hole.

I said all that because I'm running the risk of making that same mistake tonight. It's been nearly two weeks since the Falcons traded backup quarterback Matt Schaub to the Houston Texans. I really don't know why I care, but this trade seems like a mistake for both teams.

It seems like the Texans made this move so that they'll never have to hear commentators rip them for passing on Reggie Bush and Vince Young. As bad as the Mario Williams move looks now (I am still not willing to say this was a wasted pick after only one season, give him another year or two before the verdict is delivered), it's still a million times better than giving a guy with 2 career starts a $48 million dollar deal over 6 seasons. Fortunately for the Texans, only $7 million is guaranteed.

I think my favorite line from that link was Schaub's agent referring to this deal as "a real contract." That's the guy I want to represent me. Where did he go to business school? DeVry? I bet he's the type of guy who calls business school "B-school" in casual conversation.

The real problem here is that the Texans have been around now for five full seasons and they show no real signs of improvement as a franchise. It seems like the team faces an either/or decision every year and they choose poorly every time. It's actually kind of amusing, it must be what non-Celtics fans and people who aren't consumed by a bitter hatred of Danny Ainge see when they look at his tenure as the Celtics GM. If the Celtics come out of this draft without landing a franchise savior, it might just be the NBA's version of that Mario Williams pick.

This is a mistake for the Falcons, too. They're rolling into a season with plenty of turmoil (new coach, Vick's trick water bottle and the rest). And they have no reliable backup for Ron Mexico. A wild rumor has them considering bringing in Drew Bledsoe, which has disaster written all over it. So Atlanta is one injury or ill-advised carry-on item away from a lost season. What a shame it would be if they missed the postseason again.

I don't see the logic of this move from the Texans standpoint. I haven't seen a lot of Matt Schaub, but then again who has? After only two starts, who knows what he can deliver in the long run? He seems like a younger David Carr with less mileage on him. Considerably less mileage, what with the fact that David Carr gets hit more than some tackling dummies every week. But if David Carr wasn't the answer in Houston, I don't see how Matt Schaub will make them any better.

As for yesterday's Final Four games, I was right about Ohio State and wrong about Florida. Too bad. I hate Florida even more now than I did yesterday. With any luck Ohio State will beat them by a ludicrous, inconceivable margin. I was right, I think, about the Oden-Hibbert matchup. When the two of them were on the floor together, however brief that time may have been on account of foul trouble, it was very interesting. There might be some hope for the NBA yet.

I don't know if you got a chance to see any of the Detroit-Miami game, but it was very depressing. Miami took a 9 point lead into the fourth quarter and murdered it. Jason Williams is not remotely qualified to run an offense in the NBA. Detroit went to a full-court press, with Richard Hamilton guarding the point. And Miami's offense went into cardiac arrest. Antoine Walker was forced to bring the ball up when Gary Payton was in the game. And I was, in all fairness, disappointed with Toine's performance too, but maybe if Riley played him more he'd be less rusty.

If a full court press by Richard Hamilton destroys your offense, it might be time to consider a new sport. I never would have believed a veteran team would be so mystified by a simple tactic like the full court press. After all, elementary school kids are taught the full court press. And a "coaching legend" like Pat Riley had absolutely no answer. Miami might as well have had four guys on the court, for all the good Williams did there.

God help the Heat in the playoffs. I never thought Dwayne Wade's ability to bring the ball up against the full court press would be the aspect of game the team missed the most. I figured it would be much harder to make up for his scoring and his defense than for a rudimentary skill like handling Richard Hamilton pressuring the ball. Not that I could bring up the ball against Rip Hamilton, but he's not exactly a fearsome defender.

There is a massive event about to take place, one so large that it will consume the attention of the American people for the rest of this month. And believe it or not, it's not the release of the Mark Wahlberg opus Shooter on March 23. It is the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship.

As you may have noticed if you read this space once in a while, I like to predict the outcome of games. You may have noticed that I am wrong frequently and spectacularly. But those of you who think that I would be humbled by the wildly inaccurate Bears by two touchdowns Super Bowl pick and I would retire from the prognostication business are only half right.

I like Kansas to win it all. I think they have more depth in more positions than any other team in the field. If a team can find a way to contain Durant (extremely unlikely, but possible) or better yet shut down Augustin, Texas is eminently beatable. Throw Oden and Conley in for those two and the same goes for Ohio State. If UCLA were really ready for prime time, they wouldn't have stumbled so visibly against markedly inferior teams in Washington and Cal.

Florida is still out there, and they're still the champs. But I don't like them this season. They haven't been as hungry this year. I don't like the SEC (maybe you ought to pick them, since I said the same thing about SEC football before the BCS championship game). They did demolish Ohio State, but that was a very long time ago now, and Oden was just coming back from his injury. But I think it all comes down to the fact that Joakim Noah is almost, except for the height difference, a perfect doppelganger to a woman with whom I went to school.

I hate Bo Ryan and Wisconsin, so I can't rationally evaluate their chances, but if I could I think I'd short sell them. Memphis hasn't played any one. And I'm not crazy about NC. They seem to be able to do as many different things on the floor as Kansas does, but not quite as well. As for Georgetown, I can't get past the history of underperforming in the tourney under John Thompson Jr.

Obviously, with 65 teams and my chronic laziness, I can't break down every team in the field. I'll just say this about why I think Kansas wins. In the film The Ghost and the Darkness, Michael Douglas' character says that in prize fighting, every one has a plan until they get hit. The two recent wins against Texas show that Kansas can take a hit and come back hard. They can survive incredible runs by the best player in the game. They don't lose their cool, they don't try to get the game back in one possession. That's why I think they'll win it all.

I was surprised that Syracuse was not included, with the 22 wins over all and 10 in conference. I wonder if it had anything to do with the fact that Jim Boeheim spoke out in favor of expanding the field. The coach from Clemson was also in favor of the proposal, and they didn't make the cut. Having said that though, I had enough of Boeheim whining today. And Dickie V could have cut his rant on Drexel down to about 20 minutes.

I was surprised that Illinois and Arkansas were seeded. Illinois had a decent record in the Big 10, and they're one of the few teams I don't hate. But they lost to Ohio State and Wisconsin. Purdue blew them out, and to face facts, the Illini are lucky to score 50 points most days. I noticed a commercial during the Illinois-Wisconsin game that one of the fans featured in the CBS or CSTV "Fan's Journey" segments they're going to broadcast during the tournament coverage that one of the people involved is an Illinois fan. I really hope that the Illini are bringing more to the table than that. But we'll see.

As for Arkansas, they were below .500 in the SEC. I really think the SEC is overrated. Florida has had an excellent season, and they're the defending champs. But LSU fell of the map this season. Alabama was a disappointment. I hate Bruce Pearl, and Tennessee isn't going to do much damage in the tournament. Kentucky seems to want to get Tubby Smith fired. But I should stop ripping on the SEC before they put three teams in the Final Four.

I should say this right now. I have never won a bracket challenge. Every year I fill a sheet, and every year my brackets look like they got hit by the Andromeda Strain by the end of the first weekend. I try to pick based on rational analysis of the teams and their strengths and weaknesses. But I am a bitter, bitter man. So I usually end up taking the teams I hate (and there are so many - Duke, BC, Wisconsin, UCLA are only a few of them) and finding the first matchup I can foresee them losing and I go with it.

But as I thought about the years of embarrassing futility and my spectacularly bad history of picking games in any sport over the last 11 months of blogging, I had an idea. I want to know how many of my readers are smarter, or at least more rational, than I am. So I set up a group on CBS Sportsline so that you all can compete against me.

This link should take you to the site. My entry is the Lancey Howard Bracket, so you can see it before it becomes a smoking ruin by this time next week. If you want in, make sure you sign up by Wednesday. The password is s3dition. Only one entry is allowed per contestant, because it is not cool to submit multiple entries to the same pool. Either you like your picks or you don't. Feel free to ask your friends to enter, provided you have friends. I look forward to the competition and to defeating all comers.